Cell Discovery

Tuberculosis (TB) remains one of the deadliest infectious diseases, with over a million deaths annually and a growing threat from multidrug-resistant strains (MDR-TB). A major bottleneck in controlling TB is the lack of truly portable, rapid, and user-friendly diagnostic systems that can operate effectively in decentralized, resource-constrained settings. Here, we present a first-of-its-kind, portable nucleic-acid-based diagnostic platform that enables both primary TB screening and detection of drug resistance within the same unified framework, without any change in the operative embodiment. The system integrates loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) targeting dual Mycobacterium tuberculosis markers (IS6110 and IS1081) with a compact, AI-enabled device and smartphone-based readout, delivering rapid and reliable results at the point-of-care. Clinical evaluation across 105 samples demonstrated high sensitivity and specificity. Further validation through real-world deployment in a primary healthcare setting, using a single-gene (IS6110) configuration operated by minimally trained personnel, yielded 95.60% sensitivity and 100% specificity, benchmarked against GeneXpert. Critically, the same platform architecture, without modification, extends seamlessly to drug-resistance profiling, demonstrated here through a probe-free, allele-specific LAMP approach for identifying key mutations associated with rifampicin (rpoB) and isoniazid (katG) resistance. By combining robust molecular diagnostics with AI-driven automation in a compact and accessible format, this work represents a significant medical advancement toward democratizing TB care. The platform thus holds strong potential to enable early screening, guide timely treatment decisions, reduce transmission, and substantially strengthen global TB elimination efforts, particularly in high-burden, low-resource settings.

Understanding HIV transmission in densely populated urban settings is essential to mitigate ongoing epidemic spread. We present a comprehensive analysis of recent HIV transmission dynamics in Greater Mexico City, one of the worlds largest metropolitan areas comprising Mexico City and neighbouring municipalities of the State of Mexico. Drawing from over 7,000 complete pol gene sequences representing around 50% of new cases reported between 2019 and 2022 within the study region, we reconstructed the transmission network based on pairwise genetic distance. We identified ten large transmission clusters exhibiting sustained growth up to the most recent sampling period. We further analysed paired genetic and high- resolution human mobility data using an integrated phylogeographic approach. We observed a heterogeneous pattern of viral spread across the region, supported by an extensive mixing at a wider geographic scale. Across Greater Mexico City, displaying a high population density, HIV transmission is minimally spatially constrained, a pattern likely fuelled by intense human mobility. Thus, population movement weakens isolation by distance in large urban areas even for a chronic infection that is sexually and vertically transmitted. We demonstrate the value of integrating large-scale genetic, epidemiological, and mobility data to resolve contemporary HIV transmission dynamics in densely populated urban settings

Emerging evidence links the gut microbiome to sleep quality, yet measuring sleep at scale remains challenging. Commercial wearables, such as Fitbit, capture objective sleep and activity data in naturalistic settings. We integrated Fitbit data from a large, deeply-phenotyped cohort with paired lifestyle and health questionnaires. Wearable-derived measures aligned well with self-reported sleep, activity, and happiness. We identified dozens of covariate-adjusted associations between Fitbit-derived sleep features, lifestyle factors, and multi-omic data. Among molecular feature sets, the gut microbiome showed the greatest number of associations with sleep quality: butyrate-producing genera were positively associated with sleep and amplified the benefits of physical activity. Oscillospira, in particular, was consistently associated with better sleep. In blood, insulin, omega-3, and cortisol correlated with poorer sleep, whereas lower alcohol intake and mineral supplements correlated with better sleep. These robust, covariate-adjusted findings advance mechanistic understanding of the gut-sleep axis and broader molecular and lifestyle determinants of sleep quality.

Antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) is a major concern across orthoflavivirus infections, yet how multiple viral exposures shape enhancement risk remains incompletely understood. Here, we integrated serosurveillance from Saude, Brazil with functional immunologic analyses to define how yellow fever virus (YFV)-associated orthoflavivirus immune histories influence ADE phenotypes. Using serocomplex-specific anti-premembrane antibody profiling validated by microneutralization assays, plasma samples were stratified into YFV-only, YFV+DENV, and YFV+DENV+ZIKV exposure groups. In Fc gamma receptor-bearing U937 cells, YFV-only plasma demonstrated minimal enhancement activity, whereas cumulative orthoflavivirus exposure generated broader ADE phenotypes across heterologous viruses. In IFNAR1-/- passive-transfer models, YFV-only plasma did not enhance ZIKV or DENV2 infection in vivo. In contrast, YFV+DENV plasma increased ZIKV viremia and accelerated mortality kinetics, while YFV+DENV+ZIKV plasma demonstrated concentration-dependent enhancement phenotypes. Collectively, these findings indicate that isolated YFV immunity does not predispose to ADE, whereas cumulative orthoflavivirus exposure generates antibody repertoires capable of producing concentration-dependent enhancement in vivo.

Using a longitudinal cohort of 633 Gambian children (IHAT-GUT, NCT02941081), we resolve two mechanistically distinct ecological pathways linking Prevotella stercorea to infection risk. Its abundance positively predicts gut microbiome richness, consistent with community-level colonisation resistance for enteric outcomes. However, its association with reduced acute respiratory infection (ARI) persists unchanged after richness adjustment, identifying a species-autonomous pathway independent of community diversity. Weight-for-age z-score (WAZ) is uncorrelated with microbiome richness within strata, supporting WAZ as a proxy for host immune-metabolic reserve rather than a determinant of microbiome composition. In Low-WAZ children, P. stercorea at Day 1 associates with suppressed CRP, whereas in higher-WAZ children, elevated Day 1 inflammation predicts subsequent P. stercorea colonisation at Day 85, consistent with host-context-dependent immune selection. ARI and fever protection is richness-independent and concentrated in Low-WAZ children. P. copri does not retain an independent protective association when modelled jointly. These findings have direct implications for microbiome-directed interventions.

Although GLP1/GIP receptor agonists demonstrate unprecedented weight loss efficacy, their rapid clinical adoption has revealed significant real-world tolerability challenges. To evaluate their dynamic safety profiles, we developed a macro to micro pharmacovigilance framework by combining global FAERS reports with local UT Physician EHR. Macroscopically, we distilled 17 shared adverse events across the drug class from FAERS with disproportionality analysis. Microscopically, local EHR data (289,655 longitudinal treatment sessions across 71,316 patients) revealed 51.6% of GLP1 sessions terminated within 90 days. Furthermore, temporal stratified logistic regression demonstrated that initial exposure (0 to 30 days) correlated strongly with nausea and vomiting, which attenuated in extended sessions, whereas extended exposure (>2 years) uncovered late onset risks, notably incident hepatic steatosis. Ultimately, this time aware framework reveals that GLP1 safety profiles are profoundly duration dependent, providing critical insights into both acute intolerances and long-term medication safety.

Oropouche virus (OROV) spread across the Americas in 2024, yet Panama Darien migration corridor saw no outbreak until nearly a year after Brazil January 2024 peak, raising two hypotheses: cryptic circulation masked by diagnostic gaps, or recent introduction under permissive climatic conditions. Here we resolve this paradox using integrated clinical, genomic, and climate-informed surveillance. Among 1,040 individuals tested, 43% were OROV-positive and showed a clinical signature distinct from co-circulating arboviruses, including headache more frequent than in dengue (RR 2.38, 95% CI 1.74-3.24). The household secondary attack rate was 56%, and waste burning independently predicted infection. Phylogeographic reconstruction identified a single recent introduction in October 2024 with no evidence of adaptive evolution, excluding prolonged cryptic persistence. Climate-informed models indicate broad outbreak susceptibility across Panama, with Bocas del Toro and Los Santos as the next highest-risk provinces. These findings identify a Central American foothold for OROV with potential for further northward spread.

Pathological activity within frontal cortical circuits is common in many neuropsychiatric disorders, such as obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD). We developed an invasive brain mapping protocol in which temporary electrodes are implanted in candidate sites to identify personalized stimulation targets that can acutely relieve OCD symptoms. We found that stimulation within segments of the anterior limb of the internal capsule (ALIC) focally suppressed the structurally and functionally connected region of prefrontal and cingulate cortex. By leveraging the topographic organization of the ALIC, we reversibly inactivated frontal cortical sites with ALIC stimulation to determine which cortical regions are necessary for sustaining OCD symptoms. Stimulation of ventral capsule (VC) near the globus pallidus within the ALIC was associated with suppression of lateral orbitofrontal cortex activity and acute and long-term improvements in OCD symptoms. These results provide a paradigm for leveraging ALIC topography to deliver targeted connectomic neuromodulation to frontal cortex to treat neuropsychiatric disorders.

Background. Despite the decline of the 2022 global outbreak, mpox remains an ongoing public health concern, with persistent transmission and emerging viral clades sustaining resurgence risk. Improving preparedness and response is a priority, yet it remains unclear how best pre-exposure vaccination and community response can effectively limit transmission under realistic conditions and whether behavioral adaptation is critical. Methods. We used a data-driven network model of mpox transmission among men who have sex with men in the Paris region, parameterized with sexual behavioral data and calibrated to surveillance data from the 2022 outbreak. We evaluated counterfactual scenarios by varying vaccination timing, rollout speed, prioritization, and behavioral responses. Results. Here we show that, with respect to the 2022 epidemic in the Paris region, vaccination alone delivered at the observed rollout speed would not have reproduced the observed epidemic decline, even if initiated the day of the first European alert, corresponding to 12 days before the first case was reported in France. Achieving comparable control through vaccination alone would have required more than a fourfold increase in rollout speed. Large-scale and long-term reductions in sexual contacts remain instrumental to limit the epidemic size, although earlier vaccination reduces the proportion of MSM needing to change behavior. In contrast, short-term behavioral measures adopted by the vaccinees, such as sexual abstinence during the 14-day immunity-building period, combined with moderately faster vaccine rollout, (+68% for 50% compliance; +34% for 75% compliance) could achieve comparable epidemic control. Targeting individuals with higher sexual activity further improved intervention efficiency. Conclusions. Under realistic reactive vaccination scenarios, mpox control still requires strong behavioral responses. Combining timely vaccination with short-term behavioral change guidance at vaccine administration offers a feasible path to limit transmission and strengthen outbreak preparedness and response.

The choroid is critical for maintaining vision and implicated in several ocular diseases, being the sole source of nutrients and waste removal for the outer retina. Genetic discovery can help elucidate the pathways through which choroidal features influence disease risk. Our meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies (n= 78,682 participants) identified 30 genomic regions, including 20 novel loci, associated with choroidal thickness. Findings suggest inflammatory and vascular processes drive choroidal thickness, with overlapping mechanisms shared with refractive error. Genome-wide independently significant SNPs accounted for 18.7% of the genetic variance in choroidal thickness. Mendelian randomisation analyses showed a causal effect of age-related macular degeneration on choroidal thickness, and suggest a bidirectional causal effect between choroidal thickness and primary angle-closure glaucoma. These findings provide insight into the shared genetic architecture and biological pathways linking choroidal thickness and related diseases.

Curative-intent immunochemotherapy fails in ~30% of patients with large B-cell lymphoma (LBCL), yet no validated molecular tool enables early identification of high-risk individuals to guide treatment intensification. Using shallow whole genome sequencing (sWGS) of plasma cell-free DNA from 190 LBCL patients, we developed and validated the ACT score (Aberrations, fragment Composition, Terminal motifs), a composite classifier integrating genomic and fragmentomic features from a single post-cycle-1 sample. ACT-positive patients had worse 2-year outcomes versus ACT-negative patients: time-to-progression 29% vs. 83% (HR 4.4, 95% CI 1.9 - 10.0; P = 1.5 x 10 - 4) and overall survival 47% vs. 93% (HR 8.7, 95% CI 3.0 - 25.4; P = 1.8 x 10-6). ACT score was independently prognostic of the International Prognostic Index, and their combination identified the highest-risk patients. Unlike mutation-based approaches, this assay requires neither tumor tissue, germline control nor a baseline plasma sample. Built on open-source tools and sWGS, the ACT score offers a feasible scalable strategy for early risk stratification in aggressive LBCL.

Background: Black and Latino adults in the United States experience a disproportionate burden of cardiometabolic conditions due to interacting behavioral, social, and structural drivers of health. Less is known about the impact of integrating digital health tools into CHW-led interventions to improve cardiometabolic health. This trial evaluates a multilevel community-digital health promotion model delivered by CHWs to improve service utilization, health behaviors and cardiometabolic health among Black and Latino adults. Methods: This community-partnered trial uses a randomized delayed-control group with a phased recruitment design. Four cohorts (N = 664) are enrolled through three community-based organizations (CBOs). Eligible participants are 18 years who self-identify as Black or Latino, and have prediabetes/diabetes, hypertension, or overweight/obesity. Participants are allocated to either (1) a multilevel intervention consisting of CBO and CHW capacity building combined with individualized CHW-led lifestyle coaching and group activities supported by digital tools, or (2) a delayed control group receiving SMS-only cardiometabolic health education. Data collected at baseline, 6, 9, and 18 months include surveys and health metrics. Qualitative data are collected from participants and community partners to assess intervention acceptability, implementation facilitators and barriers, and sustainability. Results: The primary outcome is health service utilization at 6 and 9 months. Secondary outcomes include health behaviors, health metrics, and social determinants of health. Sustainability of health behaviors and health metrics is assessed at 18 months. Conclusions: Findings will provide evidence to inform scalable, sustainable community-digital health models for CHW-supported cardiometabolic health interventions in underserved communities.

Biological aging is heterogeneous across organ systems, yet whether CT-derived abdominal aging provides prognostic value beyond routine clinical data and whether organ decomposition adds beyond a unified estimate remains untested. We developed and evaluated organ-specific and ensemble biological age models from radiomic features across five abdominal organs in 68,675 CT scans from 32,883 subjects, evaluated on alignment with chronological age of healthy subjects (nested cross validation: MAE=3.68 years, R^2=0.90). In sequential analyses restricted to adults aged 20-60 years which is the stratum of strongest BAG-disease association, ensemble biological age gaps provided incremental prognostic value beyond demographic covariates for all-cause disease and mortality (Delta C-index=0.141, 0.051) and beyond routine blood biomarkers (Delta C-index=0.048), confirming CT-derived aging captures structural information beyond laboratory markers. Organ-specific biological age added incremental prognostic value beyond ensemble selectively for focal diseases: cardiovascular (aorta, Delta C-index=0.091) and hepato-pancreatic (pancreas, Delta C-index=0.096). These findings establish a hierarchical organization of CT-derived biological aging, positioning routine CT as a source that adds prognostic value to existing clinical biomarkers.

Neuroimaging based pain decoding faces two underappreciated challenges: between subject variability that prevents classifiers from generalizing across patients, and within session cross validation designs that inflate reported accuracy by conflating within person and between person variance. Here we address both using portable functional near infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) during pharmacologically verified local nerve anesthesia. Twentyfive patients with clinically painful teeth underwent 36 channel bilateral fNIRS during percussion before ("Pre") and after ("Post") local nerve anesthesia. In 13 block-success patients, a paired Pre versus Post comparison with healthy tooth control identified three temporal hemodynamic response function (HRF) features (late slope, mean first derivative, and baseline normalized amplitude) whose analgesia interaction effects (d = 0.63 to 0.79) exceeded that of raw general linear model (GLM) amplitude (d = 0.56), with a significant difference-in-differences interaction (p = 0.011). Per-patient calibration with these features yielded leave one subject out (LOSO) AUC = 0.68 to 0.76 for nonlinear classifiers (permutation p = 0.002), with HbO-specific feature selection achieving the best performance (RF AUC = 0.760); a healthy tooth negative control was non-significant. End to end deep learning on raw time series (CNN LSTM AUC = 0.719) was competitive with feature based classifiers, while linear models did not reach significance. Critically, head to head comparison of within-session CV and LOSO on the same data revealed mean inflation of +0.13 AUC across all model types, including deep learning, demonstrating that high within session accuracy alone does not establish subject-independent validity. Exploratory analyses suggested complementary roles for oxyhemoglobin (HbO; within patient analgesia detection) and deoxyhemoglobin (HbR; cross patient information), and that trial to trial response variability may complement amplitude for cross patient pain detection. These results show that per patient calibration with temporal HRF features supports subject independent analgesic-state detection under strict LOSO evaluation, and that within-session validation (standard in the fNIRS pain- decoding literature) can substantially overestimate performance.

Background: Frontotemporal dementia (FTD) lacks widely accessible disease-specific biomarkers. Optical coherence tomography (OCT) and OCT angiography (OCTA) may provide non-invasive measures of retinal changes associated with neurodegeneration. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis evaluating retinal biomarkers in FTD compared with Alzheimer disease (AD) and controls. Methods: A systematic search of PubMed and Embase was conducted through April 25, 2026 according to PRISMA guidelines. Studies evaluating OCT/OCTA biomarkers in FTD with comparator groups were included. Inverse weighted random-effects models, publication bias assessments, and meta-regressions were performed. Results: Ten studies involving 139 individuals with FTD, 87 with AD, 29 with mild cognitive impairment, 14 with TDP-43 proteinopathy, 5 with tauopathy, and 255 controls were included in the systematic review; five studies were eligible for meta-analysis. Compared with AD, individuals with FTD demonstrated significantly thinner retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) thickness (SMD = -0.61, 95% CI -0.98, -0.24). Compared with controls, individuals with FTD exhibited significantly thinner ganglion cell layer-inner plexiform layer (GCL-IPL) thickness (SMD = -0.55, 95% CI -1.02, -0.08), whereas pooled analyses across multiple retinal biomarkers were non-significant (SMD = -0.19, 95% CI -0.52, 0.14). RNFL thickness correlated negatively with female % in FTD and positively with age in both AD and controls. Conclusions: Individuals with FTD exhibit lower RNFL thickness than AD and lower GCL-IPL thickness than controls, suggesting retinal alterations may reflect neurodegeneration. However, larger longitudinal studies with standardized OCT/OCTA protocols are needed to determine the diagnostic and prognostic utility of retinal biomarkers in FTD

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE: We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis (SRMA) of post-surgical outcomes, comparing chlorhexidine gluconate (CHG) versus povidone iodine (PI) for vaginal antisepsis of major gynecologic procedures. DATA SOURCES: Ovid Medline, Embase, Scopus, Embase, Cochrane, and Clinicaltrials.gov were searched between 1986 and December 2023, for studies comparing CHG with PI for vaginal antisepsis of major gynecologic operations. STUDY ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: We included Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) and non-RCTs comparing CHG to PI for vaginal antisepsis of major gynecologic operations. The primary outcome was surgical site infections (SSIs) and the secondary outcome was urinary tract infections (UTIs) and vaginal irritation. METHODS: Summary estimates were calculated by fixed effects models when I2 [≤] 25% and by random effects models when I2 > 25%. Statistical analysis was performed using RevMan 5.4.1. The protocol for this systematic review was registered on PROSPERO (ID CRD42022378101). RESULTS: Nine studies met the inclusion criteria, four of which were randomized controlled trials (RCTs). 9538 patients were included, 4300 (45%) of whom were allocated to CHG and 5238 (55%) to PI. No statistically significant difference in SSI incidence was found for vaginal antisepsis with CHG versus PI in pooled analyses (n= 9538 patients; RR 1.20; 95% CI 0.92-1.57; I2 =0%). In contrast, a significantly higher risk of UTIs was observed for vaginal antisepsis with CHG than with PI (n=6061 patients; RR 1.48 95% CI 1.03-2.14; I2 = 0%). CONCLUSION: In our SRMA, there were no significant differences in SSI risk when either CHG or PI was utilized for antiseptic vaginal preparation. Interestingly, vaginal antisepsis with PI was associated with a lower incidence of post-operative UTIs following major gynecologic surgery. Our findings support current guidelines that form of vaginal antisepsis can be used for SSI prevention. They also suggest that PI may result in fewer postoperative UTIs but further randomized studies are needed to support these findings. Key words: surgical site infection, surgical wound infection, urinary tract infection, urogynecologic surgery, Chlorhexidine, Povidone Iodine, surgical antiseptic,

Background Artificial intelligence-enhanced electrocardiography (AI-ECG) enables scalable, low-cost cardiac dysfunction screening, but existing models are annotation-intensive and predominantly adult-derived, leaving paediatric generalizability uncertain. Paediatric cohorts exhibit highly variable cardiac morphology and function compared to adults, which may be useful for learning generalizable AI-ECG models. Methods We pretrained ECG-Fyler on a predominantly paediatric, all-age cohort at Boston Children's Hospital (1992-2023), annotated with a cardiology-specific coding system (Fyler codes), and evaluated it on assessments from echocardiography (echo) and cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) studies. We validated on an external adult cohort from Columbia University Irving Medical Center. Performance was benchmarked against several AI-ECG foundation models by AUROC across age groups, lesion types, and limited-data scenarios. Findings The pretraining cohort comprised 782,138 ECGs from 255,271 patients (median age: 10.9 years, IQR: [2.8-16.8]). Internal evaluation included 178,495 ECG-echo pairs (median age: 10.9 [3.7-17.0]) and 8,584 ECG-CMR pairs (median age: 20.7 [15.6-29.6]). External validation included 82,543 ECG-echo pairs from adults (median age: 64.0 [52.0-74.0]). ECG-Fyler improved AUROC across biventricular dysfunction and dilation tasks, with the largest gains in low-data settings. In internal validation, ECG-Fyler detected low left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF [&le;] 40%) from only 100 fine-tuning samples (AUROC: 0.80, 95% CI: [0.78-0.80]), outperforming other models (AUROC < 0.65) and improving with additional fine-tuning (AUROC: 0.94 [0.93-0.94]). Similar improvements were observed for CMR-derived LVEF, RVEF, and ventricular dilation. In external validation on adults, ECG-Fyler exhibited an AUROC of 0.83 (CI: [0.82-0.85]) for LVEF [&le;] 40%. After fine-tuning on less than 10% of external data, LVEF [&le;] 45% performance (AUROC: 0.87 [0.86-0.88]) outperformed a fully trained, site-specific prior model (AUROC: 0.85 [0.84-0.87]). Interpretation Pretraining on richly annotated, paediatric-dominant ECGs yields models that transfer efficiently across institutions and ages, supporting AI-ECG screening and triage when labels or imaging access are limited. Funding National Institutes of Health (R01LM012973); Kostin Innovation Fund, Boston Children's Hospital

Background: Thalamic low-intensity transcranial focused ultrasound (tFUS) has shown promise for increasing behavioral responsiveness in disorders of consciousness (DOC), but no study has examined whether it can causally modulate the well-validated behavioral, electrophysiological, and metabolic biomarkers of DOC impairment. Methods: Sixteen adult patients (44% Female; Age, M=37.81, SD=15.97) with a chronic DOC (Time Since Injury, M=3.39, SD=1.94 years) secondary to severe brain injury (TBI 44%, non-TBI 56%) underwent a 10-day inpatient, longitudinal, single-arm, open-label protocol. tFUS was delivered in a single session targeting the left central thalamus. Well-known behavioral (CRS-R), electrophysiological (EEG {delta}/{beta} ratio), metabolic (18F-FDG PET), and polysomnographic outcomes were assessed at baseline and after sonication. Results: The maximum CRS-R total score increased significantly following tFUS compared to baseline (M=13.27 vs. M=10.33; t(14)=7.407, p<0.001, d=1.913), as did the global EEG {delta}/{beta} ratio (N=14; W=17, p=0.025, r=0.68), with the degree of frontal slowing positively predicting behavioral gains ({tau}b=0.51, p=0.016). Glucose metabolism decreased bilaterally in thalamus and frontal, temporal, and parietal cortices at both post-tFUS timepoints compared to baseline. Finally, N2 sleep increased by 33% following tFUS (N=11; t(10)=2.386, p=0.038, d=0.72), though this did not survive correction. No severe adverse events were observed. Conclusion: Thalamic tFUS can causally modulate well-validated behavioral, electrophysiological, and metabolic biomarkers of DOC. The convergent inhibitory signature across these measures suggests a thalamocortical reset mechanism, complementing existing excitatory neuromodulation approaches and providing the mechanistic foundation for a large, randomized sham-controlled trial.

The Epic Sepsis Model version 2 (ESMv2) is a prediction model embedded into the electronic medical record used to warn clinicians which hospitalized patients are at risk for sepsis. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 31,951 hospitalizations of 25,760 patients to compare analyses conducted at the commonly used patient-level (where a maximum prediction prior to the onset of sepsis is used to measure performance) vs novel prediction-level (where each prediction is used to measure performance). Sepsis, defined by the Sepsis 3 criteria occurred during 1,049 hospitalizations (3.3%). Patient-level analyses suggested excellent discrimination AUC 0.86; [IQR 0.85, 0.87], whereas prediction-level analyses demonstrated lower performance AUC 0.62; [IQR 0.57, 0.65]. Low estimates of the positive predictive value (14.5% at the patient level vs 4% at the prediction level) imply a high number of false alerts. Common evaluation approaches may overstate the performance of dynamic prediction models and mislead clinical decision-making.

Background: Despite the success of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART), vascular comorbidities, including cerebrovascular disease, are more prominent in people living with HIV (PLWH) compared to people without HIV (PWOH). However, quantitative assessments of cerebrovascular morphometry and their associations with cognitive outcomes in the context of HIV are still limited. In this study, we explore this missing link. Methods: Magnetic Resonance Angiography (MRA) data, blood markers, and neurocognitive assessments were collected from 73 PWOH subjects (male: 57, female: 16; age: 53 {+/-} 16) and 99 PLWH subjects (male: 66, female: 30, age: 53 {+/-} 11). Vessel morphometric features were quantified using intraCranial Artery Feature Extraction (iCafe) to investigate associations between vessel morphometry, markers of monocytes, endothelial cell activation, and cognitive performance. Results: HIV status predicted a lower total number of branches ({beta} = -0.224, p = 0.001, d = -0.517) and shorter total distal length ({beta} = -0.173, p = 0.021, d = -0.370) with a moderate effect size. Total branch number was found to be negatively associated with plasma levels of monocyte markers (sCD14: r = -0.167, p = 0.033; sCD163: r = -0.157, p = 0.045) and positively correlated with white matter cerebral blood flow (r = 0.550; p [&le;] 0.05). HIV status was the strongest predictor of overall cognitive performance in ANCOVA model ({beta} = -0.219, p = 0.006, d = -0.453). Conclusions: Our results suggest that cognitive impairment in PLWH is associated with vessel morphology metrics. Monocyte immune activation may contribute to changes in vessel morphology.